Ruarai Tobin
I'm a PhD candidate in infectious disease modelling in the Infectious Disease Dynamics Unit at the University of Melbourne.
I am interested in understanding the role of adaptive immunity in shaping the transmission dynamics of high-burden seasonal respiratory viruses like SARS-CoV-2, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and influenza. My work also includes the development of new models for the forecasting of respiratory virus incidence and development of software to support the Australia–Aotearoa Forecasting Hub.
Prior to the commencement of my PhD, I worked on supporting Australia's public health response to the COVID-19 pandemic and modelling the spatial risk of Plasmodium knowlesi malaria across Southeast Asia.
My publications can be found below, or on Google Scholar.
Publications
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Henderson AS, Moss R, Adekunle AI, Ye H, O'Hara-Wild M, Eales O, Senior KL, Tobin RJ, Windecker SM, Golding N, Robinson E, Strachan J, Hyndman RJ, Dawson P, McCaw JM, McBryde E, Shearer FM. Winter forecasting of respiratory viruses in Victoria Australia. medRxiv pre-print. (2026)
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Tobin RJ, McCaw JM, Shearer FM. The role of antibody-mediated immunity in shaping the seasonality of respiratory viruses. Journal of Theoretical Biology. (2026)
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Moss R, Tobin RJ, O'Hara-Wild M, Adekunle AI, Liu D, South T, Morris DJ, Ryan GE, Hao T, Babu A, Senior KL, Wood JG, Golding N, Ross JV, Dawson P, Hyndman RJ, Price DJ, McCaw JM, Shearer FM. Ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 activity to support Australia's pandemic response: 2020–22. PLOS Computational Biology. (2026)
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Eales O, Senior KL, Windecker S, Tobin RJ, Strachan J, Robinson E, Golding N, Wood J, McCaw JM, Shearer FM. Temporal analysis of respiratory virus epidemics in Victoria over winter 2024. Communicable Diseases Intelligence. (2026)
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Plank MJ, Young AR, Senior KL, Tobin RJ, O'Hara-Wild M, Callaghan F, Shearer FM, Eales O. Multi-pathogen situational assessment and forecasting of respiratory disease in Aotearoa New Zealand. arXiv pre-print. (2026)
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Tobin RJ, Walker CR, Moss R, McCaw JM, Price DJ, Shearer FM. A modular approach to forecasting COVID-19 hospital bed occupancy. Communications Medicine. (2025)
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Choi M, Kim J, Kim H, Tobin RJ, Lee S. Multiscale modeling of hospital length of stay for successive SARS-CoV-2 variants: a multi-state forecasting framework. Viruses. (2025)
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Zachreson C, Tobin RJ, Walker CR, Conway E, Shearer FM, McVernon J, Geard N. A model-based assessment of social isolation practices for COVID-19 outbreak response in residential care facilities. BMC Public Health. (2024)
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Shearer FM, Edwards L, Kirk M, Eales O, Golding N, Hassall J, Liu B, Lydeamore M, Miller C, Moss R, Price DJ, Ryan GE, Sullivan S, Tobin RJ, Ward K, Kaldor J, Cheng AC, Wood J, McCaw JM. Opportunities to strengthen respiratory virus surveillance systems in Australia: lessons learned from the COVID-19 response. Communicable Diseases Intelligence. (2024)
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Tobin RJ, Harrison LE, Tully M, Lubis IND, Noviyanti R, Anstey NM, Rajahram GS, Grigg M, Flegg J, Price DJ, Shearer FM. Updating estimates of Plasmodium knowlesi malaria risk in response to changing land use patterns across Southeast Asia. PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases. (2024)
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Harrison LE, Flegg J, Tobin RJ, Lubis IN, Noviyanti R, Grigg M, Shearer FM, Price DJ. A multicriteria framework for disease surveillance site selection: case study for Plasmodium knowlesi malaria in Indonesia. Royal Society Open Science. (2024)
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Zachreson C, Tobin RJ, Szanyi J, Walker CR, Cromer D, Shearer FM, Conway E, Ryan G, Cheng A, McCaw JM, Geard N. Individual variation in vaccine immune response can produce bimodal distributions of protection. Vaccine. (2023)
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Tobin RJ, Wood JG, Jayasundara D, Sara G, Walker CR, Martin GE, McCaw JM, Shearer FM, Price DJ. Real-time analysis of hospital length of stay in a mixed SARS-CoV-2 Omicron and Delta epidemic in New South Wales, Australia. BMC Infectious Diseases. (2023)